Prospects of IT sector development as a leading innovative sector in Ukraine
Abstract
Innovation activity becomes an integral part of the modern world that develops dynamically. Every leading country identified priority innovative sectors and concentrates its efforts on their development. In Ukraine the best dynamics among innovative areas is demonstrated by the sector of information technologies. It has considerable potential and therefore the study of the prospects of its development is relevant.
The aim of the research is to develop the forecast of development of the IT market in Ukraine under conditions of uncertainty based on the available statistics, trends and forecasts of experts by using methods of forecasting, such as a trend line and artificial neural networks; to specify the measures for the development of IT sector based on the forecast.
We analyzed the state of the market of IT in Ukraine as one of the leading innovative sectors of the country. As a result, a significant potential for the development of this innovative field of activity in this country was verified. It was discovered that the IT market has a tendency to growth. It is found that the crisis of 2008–2009 negatively influenced this market but already in 2010 the positive trend resumed. From 2000 to 2013, the volume of IT market increased by 505.7%, which confirms the prospects of this sector.
It is proven that under current conditions of uncertainty, it is very risky to invest in the sphere of IT because it requires large initial investment. It was concluded that this situation predetermined the need to study the impact of the political and economic situation on the IT market in Ukraine and its further development forecast. By using correlation–regression analysis, we identified the factors that affect the volume of the IT market in Ukraine, and the nature of their influence. It was found that the most influential of these factors are the four: the volume of GDP, average wage, foreign direct investments and export of services, and we determined the nature of this influence. Based on the available forecasts of the dynamics of these factors, by using the line trend and artificial neural network, we made a forecast of positive trends in the volume of the IT market in Ukraine for 2014–2016.
The scientific novelty of the work is: in conducting forecasting of the volume of the Ukrainian IT market by using trend line and artificial neural network; in the application of correlation–regression analysis to find the factors of influence on the IT market for building up artificial neural network. The results of the work can be used as a basis for developing strategies for innovative development of enterprises under conditions of uncertainty.
The obtained results may become the basis to further research into the development of innovation activity of enterprises in Ukraine and determining capability of the development of IT sector in this country as the most promising innovative field of activity.
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